Publications

03.03.2007. The future of Russia and the EU
For Russia, Europe is a centuries-long magnet, which has had a strong influence on its cultural identity to this day. For Europe, Russia has always been both a shield and a threat. Russia defended Europe from the Mongols, Turks and Nazis; it has been the most reliable among a host of almost wholly unreliable major suppliers of energy, which Europe generates on a negligible scale. But defending Europe, Russia sometimes launched an offensive and gained control over some of its parts....

03.03.2007. Rapports Russie — Union europ?enne : quel avenir?
Pour la Russie, l'Europe est, depuis des siècles, un pôle d'attraction qui a déterminé et qui continue de déterminer son identité civilisée. Pour l'Europe, la Russie est, à la fois, un défenseur et une menace, défenseur contre les hordes tataro-mongoles, les Turcs, les nazis et fournisseur (le plus fiable parmi les autres fournisseurs, indignes de confiance) de matières énergétiques que l'Europe...

30.01.2007. How to make elite in Belarus pro-Russian?
Moscow and Minsk seem to have come to terms. Moscow has increased gas tariffs, and given Belarus a blessing of transition. It has also raised export duties for the oil pumped into Belarus and through it. To sum up, Moscow has reduced but not stopped de facto subsidizing of the Belarusian government. This is not the first time we have tried to threaten Minsk or persuade it to switch to a more sensible economic policy. There were almost no official calls for a more adequate...

13.10.2006. Cracking Putin's code
MOSCOW. (Politichesky Zhurnal — RIA Novosti) — Vladimir Putin met with participants in the Valdai Discussion Club on September 9, but it has taken until today for an adequate response to come out of the event. The Valdai Club unites leading political scientists, experts on Russia, and heads of major foreign policy and research centers. The president's message to the political elite, the main audience, reveals a covert ideological struggle in the top echelon of...

28.08.2006. Goals for Russia
To begin with, I would like to sum up some developments. It has become obvious that the United States has lost Iraq, and that the situation there is quickly sliding down into a civil war, which will involve adjacent countries. The question is when the U.S. is going to leave, and whether there exists the slightest possibility for the world community to prevent Iraqi territory from turning into the breeding ground for instability and terrorism, which would be worse than Afghanistan...

07.08.2006. Russia — U.S.: back to peaceful coexistence?
Unofficial translation Last week, two important foreign policy papers were released in the United States. One is the president’s national security report, The National Security Strategy of the United States of America. The last such document was issued in 2003. The other, entitled Russia’s Wrong Direction: What the United States Can and Should Do, was prepared by the Council on Foreign Relations, America’s most prestigious foreign policy organization. The two...

07.08.2006. Nuclear schoolboy tricks or provocations?
The latest issue of Foreign Affairs, a most respectable and the world’s most popular American magazine on foreign and defense policy, published an article by two young authors – an Assistant Professor and an Associate Professor of good, yet minor, U.S. universities. Having read the article, I smiled and recalled my young years when, during the Cold War, I spent – or rather wasted – more than a decade studying nuclear theology and writing numerous articles,...

07.08.2006. The Geopolitically Handicapped
Reading recent speeches by some U.S. and NATO people, one might wonder how some Western officials who look so civilized on the surface can be deep down as distracted from reality and, in fact, as geopolitically irrational as only the most radical Islamists have appeared to be. This world of ours is a quickly changing place, with changes, sometimes unpredictable and uncontrollable, spinning past those who gave grown accustomed to predictability and certainty. Which is the price to...

20.07.2006. A Russian view: Ukraine should not join NATO
More and more, we hear talk about putting Ukraine on a fast track for membership in NATO.  Let me be clear: Ukraine, like every other nation, has the right to join any alliance it wishes to. But elites sometimes tend to be irrational, or even suicidal.  The pro-NATO faction in Ukraine is clearly composed of people who have neither confidence in nor a vision of Ukrainian statehood; do not want to compete with a robust and often rough Russia, and would like to control their...

17.05.2006. New nuclear era beset with old threats
The row over Iran's nuclear program will have major repercussions for Russia. It concerns this country's vital interests, and even its very survival. For all that, this row should not eclipse a more general problem of nuclear weapons proliferation, which has become a reality. The situation in Pakistan probably presents the worst threat of proliferation, and bears the highest risk of nuclear weapons slipping into the hands of terrorists or other states. Celebrating the end of the...

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