Publications

17.05.2012. Russia Needs One More Capital – in Siberia
If Peter the Great lived now, he would surely build the capital not in the Baltic region, but at the Pacific Ocean. For over a year, a serious discussion about Russia’s future was drowned in the election debates. Now that the election season, unusually long and intensive, is over, it would be appropriate to address strategic issues again. In one of them I have been keenly interested for 15 years and I have closely studied it for four. The issue surfaced rather...

27.03.2012. Convergence the Other Way Round
Everything in the world is changing. The fantastically fast – by historical standards – redistribution of forces is especially evident. The old geopolitics is coming back surprisingly quickly. This is coupled with the rejection of centuries-old rules and political morality which made international relations predictable at least to some extent. Sovereignty and territorial integrity are no longer respected, along with loyalty to one’s word and allies. All this is...

07.03.2012. The Age of Authoritarian Democracy
MOSCOW – The world is currently being shaken by tectonic changes almost too numerous to count: the ongoing economic crisis is accelerating the degradation of international governance and supranational institutions, and both are occurring alongside a massive shift of economic and political power to Asia. Less than a quarter-century after Francis Fukuyama declared “the end of history,” we seem to have arrived at the dawn of a new age of social and geopolitical...

02.03.2012. An Unfinished Story
Russian international affairs specialist Dmitry Trenin has published a book, Post-Imperium: A Eurasian Story. It was first published in English and was written for a foreign audience, which I know it has found. The Russian edition will come out soon.  I read the book in English. It was enjoyable and impressed me with its author’s intellectual courage. Trenin has made an elegant attempt to embrace the un-embraceable and achieve the impossible - to explain what happened to...

24.02.2012. Russia's Luck Has Run Out
Russia has been unbelievably lucky in its relations with foreign powers over the past 12 years. The China-driven economic boom in most of Asia triggered a prolonged demand for Russia's main export commodities — oil and gas, raw minerals and foodstuffs. In addition, traditional competitors in the West for global influence have become economically weakened. What's more, China has done everything possible to avoid posing any threat to Russia and often sides with the Kremlin when they...

22.02.2012. Russia Lucky Again?
Russia has been fantastically lucky in its relations with the foreign world in the past ten or twelve years. The new industrial revolution in Asia has triggered a long-term increase in the demand for top items of Russian exports: oil, minerals, power- and water-intensive products, and foodstuffs. Russia’s traditional rivals in the West have weakened. China is trying hard not to antagonize Russia, while keeping it on its side amid the mounting competition with the USA....

28.12.2011. Europe Not Growing Any More
Russia: Results of the year and agenda for tomorrow First, I would like to make a reservation: I will sum up foreign policy results and bring forward my proposals, mostly from the standpoint of foreign policy, which I believe would be advantageous in the next few years. We are now so accustomed to breathtaking changes that they hardly catch our attention. Meanwhile, the outgoing year has delivered several drastic changes in Russia’s international environment.
27.12.2011. A revolutionary chaos of the new world
The world is getting more troublesome and increasingly challenging right before our eyes An unscientific name for the current – and future – state of the world is “jolly dismay.” It is jolly for the people and countries that will prove capable of adjusting themselves to and taking the lead amidst swift changes, as well as making gains on the incessant transformation of the world. For those incapable of re-adjusting to this transformation, it is...

14.12.2011. Guest post: Russia needs the Brics
Many traits in Russian contemporary development cause me grave concern. Systemic corruption, for example; weak institutions; the manipulation of politics by an authoritarian leadership; and the economy’s excessive dependence on energy exports. But as a seasoned observer, who witnessed Russia surviving several crises, I am tired of panicking. I believe that Russia has a future as long as there is at least some political and economic modernization. And this future depends on...

27.09.2011. Hotel Europe: Guests and Permanent Partners
Sergei Karaganov, dean of the School of World Economics and International Affairs, National Research University–Higher School of Economics, chairman of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy; Andrzej Olechowski, former Foreign Minister of Poland; Horst Teltschik, former Foreign Policy and Security Adviser to Chancellor Helmut Kohl Nobody seems to be interested in the fate of one Europe anymore. A severe debt...

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