Publications

02.09.2010. Odd Man In
To be a global player, a united Europe must include Russia Russia and the E.U. must set the long-term goal of creating a Union of Europe, which would also include countries like Turkey, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan. If Europe does not unite, the United States and China will dominate the world order. A geostrategic triangle between the United States, China, and a truly united Europe would benefit everyone. Russia and Europe have missed two critical chances for rapprochement. The...

23.07.2010. A Russian Katyn
Several developments and events of recent time make me raise, before myself and readers, the issue of one of the main roots of our problems – our inability to overcome the legacy of the horrible-for-Russia 20th century. In May, we celebrated yet another anniversary of the Great Victory, perhaps the only episode of the last century that this country and its people can be absolutely proud of. On the eve of the celebrations, Moscow was involved in a strange discussion as to whether...

14.07.2010. A Union of Europe: The Last Chance?
Over the past twenty years, Russia and Europe have had two chances for rapprochement. And both were largely missed. The first window of opportunity opened after the Russian revolution of 1991 and lasted until about the mid-1990s. Russia, which had thrown off communism, and its young elite enthusiastically hurried into the arms of the West and were even ready to integrate with it as a junior partner. However, the West hesitated – and turned its back on Moscow. It politely...

06.07.2010. Global Zero and Common Sense
Nuclear Weapons in the Modern World This article is based on the material prepared for a Trilateral Commission meeting. On the surface, the nuclear weapons situation has been developing quite successfully. Russia and the United States have signed a new strategic arms reduction treaty, sending a meaningful signal to the international community. The parties will eliminate the excessive stockpiles of strategic offensive armaments. The political effect of...

18.05.2010. "Despite its decline, Europe will be a shining example of how the world should be governed"
Several major trends will dominate the next two decades. There will be the continuous shift of economic and political power from Europe and to some extent from the U.S. to East and South Asia. But although Europe’s geopolitical decline will continue, it will remain a beacon of stability and a shining example of how the world could and should be governed. Russia, after reaching a peak of its new influence in 2007-2009, will also face geopolitical decline, moving in the...

13.05.2010. The Dangers of Nuclear Disarmament
MOSCOW – Russia and the United States have signed a new strategic nuclear-arms reduction treaty (START). Officially, the treaty cuts their weapons by one-third; in fact, each party will decommission only several dozen.   Nevertheless, the treaty is a considerable achievement. It normalizes political relations between the two countries, thereby facilitating their further cooperation and rapprochement.   The return of strategic nuclear weapons to...

13.05.2010. The Nucleus of the Treaty
Russia and the U.S. have signed a new strategic arms reduction treaty. This officially cuts their surplus of arms by one third, but in actual fact, each party will only decommission several dozen such armaments. If the U.S. Senate and the Russian parliament ratify the agreement, the two countries will restore control over strategic nuclear armaments, making the situation more predictable. In the course of the negotiations, Russia reached almost all the...

02.04.2010. Nuclear Weapons in the Modern World
This essay was prepared for the Trilateral Commision and was published in the " Nuclear Disarmament and Nonproliferation" Report №64 - Washington, Paris, Tokyo, 2010  

09.03.2010. Echoes of the Past Wars
Or Strategic Havoc Last year was quite eventful in military-strategic terms. Russia and the United States remained locked in tough-going talks over strategic arms reductions. The odds are they may soon deliver a treaty. Then there will follow a no easy period of ratification in the United States. The Republicans in the Senate will do their utmost to strip Barack Obama of this sign of success in the sphere of disarmament the US president had declared a priority. The...

15.02.2010. THE PAST YEAR AND THE UPCOMING DECADE
The year 2009 brought closure to the first decade of the 21st century and – largely although not completely – to the entire post-Cold-War period in Euro-Atlantic politics. It also closed an era in Russian domestic and foreign policies marked by the country’s recovery as a state and a steep strengthening of its international and political positions. While ten years ago Russia faced the task of de facto regaining real sovereignty and the status of a great power, which...

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