RICK SANCHEZ: I’m going to share something else with you. Look at this. This is something one of the producers of our show brought to my attention earlier today. And I looked at this and said, “What the hell?” Talk about a head-turner. Look at this: Canada’s armed forces have recently modeled a hypothetical U.S. military invasion of Canada. They’re preparing for a potential invasion of Canada by the United States? The Canadian newspaper, The Globe and Mail, reported this – you’re seeing it right there in front of you – on Tuesday, citing two senior government officials.
It marked the first time in more than a century that the Canadian Armed Forces has developed a scenario specifically involving a potential military threat or assault from the United States. OK, after the break, right here in the studio, we’re going to be joined by somebody who knows a lot about these stories and the context, the perspective, the history of these stories.
None other than Sergey Karaganov. He is an economic advisor who has not only advised Vladimir Putin, but he also advised Boris Yeltsin. He understands the Russian situation. He understands the current conflict with Europe, both from a personal, intellectual, and historic perspective.
I’m excited about being able to talk to him. He just had a long conversation with my dear friend Tucker Carlson, and now he’s good enough to sit here with us. You’ll see him in just a minute. Do not go away.
Sergey Karaganov is good enough to join us. He’s the honorary chairman of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, the Dean of the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics. And those are titles, and we all like them. But more importantly – what makes a man important is his history, what he’s done. And your history is fascinating. You were here from the beginning. You were here through the collapse of the Soviet Union.
You were here and advised Boris Yeltsin. And you’ve also been advising the present president of Russia, Mr. Putin. That makes you, to me anyway, somebody who can share the knowledge that too many around the world don’t understand. And not just because you read it or heard it on a podcast – because you lived it, right? Let’s start with this. You made headlines recently, as I’m sure you know, all over the world when you told my friend Tucker Carlson that Russia may have to eventually strike Europe. What did you mean by that?
SERGEY KARAGANOV: Well, first of all, let me just correct you. I have been studying, working, writing pieces of speeches even for Brezhnev for 50 years. Imagine how old I am. Wow. And I decided to open the question of possible Russian use of nuclear weapons about two and a half or three years ago.
Because I saw that our European neighbours have gone amok. They have lost the sense of history, have lost the sense of security. They are absolutely irresponsible. And to stop them, we have to go up the ladder of escalation, hopefully without actual use of nuclear weapons, but we have to be ready for that.
And of course, we send the signals also to the United States leadership through different channels. And, by the way, Americans have started to withdraw from this bloody conflict with the West in Ukraine – I mean, even before Trump – because they understood that the stakes on our side are very high.
Now the question is how to persuade the insane, quote-unquote, European elites to come back to their senses and to withdraw from this conflict. However, I think that they are not ready.
RICK SANCHEZ: Are you heartened by the fact that recently – because of the Greenland debacle or threat, or whatever we want to call it – we’ve seen overtures from Merkel, saying essentially she wants the largest nation. I’m trying to quote: “the largest nation in Europe to come back into the European community.” Mr. Macron said he wants to meet with Putin all of a sudden.
So did Meloni in Italy. And Finland is showing overtures that they want to be friendly with Russia once again, or at least try and talk to them. Did they get your message? Did they watch you on Tucker?
SERGEY KARAGANOV: Yes, I think they watched it. But I am very skeptical as to whether Russia wants to return to Europe. Thank you. We have been in that… we have ended, hopefully, our European journey, which has brought us a lot of useful things – like our great culture; Dostoyevsky and Tchaikovsky wouldn’t have happened without European influence. But Europe got us into a lot of trouble.
Especially during the last century, but even before. They invaded us for five centuries. I mean… and they were sources of all the worst in human history, including two world wars, multiple holocausts, etc.
So when they’re inviting us back, I say, “No, thank you”.
But, of course, we want to have good relations with Europeans; we have to trade, we have to take parts of their accumulated fat. Americans are doing extremely well now. But we will not return to, quote-unquote, “Europe.” We are becoming what we have to be.
And we are destined by history. We are a great northern Eurasian power, which is politically largely Asian, spiritually also largely Asian – because our Christianity came from Palestine, from Israel; our Islam came from there, further there; our Buddhism came; even Easter… and our political system we have taken from the Genghis Khan Empire.
Though we defeated them in the end and freed ourselves, but we are very much like they used to be. However, we are thankful for our European neighbors for what they have enriched us.
But we have to stop that journey started by Peter the Great. I mean, about 150 years ago, one of our Tsars, Alexander the Third – of whom Putin is very fond of – wanted to stop that journey, but we were unable.
And then we got communism and, again, two world wars, etc. I mean, we love some places in Europe. We know that there are friends. But I mean, crises in Europe, which have been also coming from Europe, are not in our interests.
RICK SANCHEZ: It’s hard to understand why the antipathy, because it has been very serious. Mr. Putin, as you well know – I think it was in 2001 or something – reached out to the U.S. in the form of Condoleezza Rice, and he said, “Look, we want to join NATO. We want to be a part of you. We don’t want to be your enemy. Let us in, and we’ll be friends.” It’s like your neighbor coming to your house with flowers, and you shut the door on them, because they seem to say, “No, we want nothing to do with you.”
And you were the guy, back then, who said this will eventually lead to a conflagration or conflict between Europe and the United States.
SERGEY KARAGANOV: You called it. And between Europe and us.
RICK SANCHEZ: Europe and Russia, I see. Europe and Russia, yes.
SERGEY KARAGANOV: I misspoke. Well, I persuaded Boris Yeltsin in 1992 to apply for NATO membership because at that time there was an opening. But he was rejected. When he was rejected, I was appalled, because the offer was so generous. And I told my friends in the Council for Defense Policy and the Russian establishment, “I mean, come on, they couldn’t have rejected that, it is so stupid. Probably they want to deliver coup de grâce, so let us smile and build up our strength.” When Putin, Mr. Putin, came and he applied for the second time, I was already skeptical, but he tried, and he failed.
RICK SANCHEZ: Is he too patient?
SERGEY KARAGANOV: After that, absolutely, he’s too patient. After that… after that, everything started. After the rejection, and then, of course, when President Bush rejected American participation in the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, the decisions were made – within Mr. Putin’s mind and within our minds – that we are… that the conflict is inevitable. I have been writing and telling, that the conflict is inevitable. You think Putin believes that? He didn’t want a war, clearly. And he doesn’t want… still wants to stop the war.
But the conflict was inevitable since 1994, when NATO started to expand.
RICK SANCHEZ: Is that why Mr. Putin recently said, “We don’t want war, but if it’s war you want, we’ll give it to you,” and then followed up with an Iskander missile?
SERGEY KARAGANOV: Yes. And he’s progressing, quote-unquote, in a very simple way. At first, when people like myself were telling that eventually, if absolutely needed – though God forbid – we have to punish our European neighbors with nukes (I hope that wouldn’t happen, and I pray that it wouldn’t happen), he disagreed.
But now, recently, they changed the Russian nuclear doctrine, lowering the nuclear threshold, and very recently – I think a month and a half ago – he said that if Europe continues and starts a war against Russia, there’ll be nobody in Europe to talk to. And that means he threatened nuclear annihilation.
I know he doesn’t want that, and I hope, and I hate the idea. But the question is that our European neighbors – not all, of course – they are running amok, as they have done many times in history.
RICK SANCHEZ: There’s a lot of people watching us from around the world. This show is seen by millions and millions of people. There’s a lot of people watching us in the UK and they’re watching us in Australia. We get comments from there all the time. They’re watching us as well in Europe and most certainly in the United States. I’m an American. And I know this: a lot of people hear what you’re saying and think that you’re threatening Europe without cause. Because a lot of them don’t understand what MI6 has done in the United States – I mean in Russia, pardon me – what the CIA has done.
They don’t know, perhaps, about the City Hall attack that the Russians were able to link to the West. They don’t know about Russian generals assassinated, about train derailments. There have been so many things that have been direct attacks on Russia that have come from the West that the West doesn’t know about because it’s not reported there.
And I think that’s what you’re getting at when you say, how much can Mr. Putin take, right?
SERGEY KARAGANOV: Exactly. And unfortunately, as you might know, I have been one of the founders of the Institute of Europe. And before I had been a specialist on the United States. I got rid of my illusions in the 90s. Probably President Putin has had some illusions – I mean, now he has no illusions. The question is now how to stop Europe from being Europe – the source of all evil and aggression in the world.
Colonialism, racial hatred – I mean racism – multiple genocides. Not all Europeans – I have many friends there and I like some of the countries and some of the places – but Europe has been the source. They have sucked your country, the United States too, several times into bloody conflicts. You saved them for nothing. Europe has been a threat for 500 years. It has to be pushed away from the world scene at last.
RICK SANCHEZ: Is it because Russia has so much? Because when you look at it on paper… this is, you know, Russia’s a country like any other country, but there are certain facts that are just undeniable. Russia is the largest country on the planet. Russia has more hydrocarbons than any country on the planet. Russia has perhaps more rare earth minerals than any country with the exception of China on the planet. Timber. An economy that is without fail. An army that seems to be as capable as any in the world, according to the proof we’re seeing now.
Now, it’s hard to look at Russia and not want to maybe take it over, end it, stop it. Is that what it is? Is it envy or just greed?
SERGEY KARAGANOV: Partially it is envy, but mostly it has been greed. And we saw that for the last several centuries. So, we are used to that. But we have had many illusions, as you know, since Peter the Great, that Europe was a source of humanism. I mean, Europe is not, has not been, a source of humanism.
It is a source of hatred, racial, colonialism, aggression. Though, of course, as I’ve said, I mean Europe is multifaceted and there are many countries in Europe which I think could be brought back to their senses. Let’s put it this way: the worst in Europe is the Calvinists in the West and North. And people of the South and Central are generally more sensible; they generally culturally are more open, and hopefully sooner or later they will join in a great Eurasian concert of nations – but not countries of the Northern Western type.
RICK SANCHEZ: Is there any question in your mind that Ukraine is simply a tool that is being used by bankers around the world, including some of the oligarchs that got their asses kicked out of Russia by Mr. Putin, went elsewhere and then said, “We want to get back at Putin and we’ll do it through Ukraine.” Is that argument sound or am I full of crap?
SERGEY KARAGANOV: It is a sound argument, but also Ukraine was, at one point, used – sorry to say that to you, American – as an American tool from 2003, especially 2004, to stop a possibility or curtail a possibility of a continental-wide alliance where Russia and Germany would join.
That was exactly the point when American inner circles started to pump up the Ukrainian problem. The first coup d’état in Ukraine started in 2004, and since that time, I mean, we have started an inevitable slide down towards a direct confrontation. I hoped, however, that we would avoid that, but we failed.
RICK SANCHEZ: But here we have Mr. Trump now, basically – it looks to me, and maybe I’m over-speaking here – favoring Russia. He’s not talking to Zelensky. He’s talking to Russia again and again and again. Tomorrow there’s going to be a meeting in Moscow here between Witkoff and Kushner? It looks to me like the Americans are sending a message to the world and especially to the Europeans that “I’m more with Russia than I am with Ukraine, and I may even be more with Russia than I am with you guys.”
What does that do to the world order?
SERGEY KARAGANOV: Well, first of all, the world order has collapsed. I mean, it has been collapsing since approximately the mid-2000s. Yeah. So now it is in full collapse, and we should think about what we should build on the ruins of the former world order. We are not yet ready to talk about that. As to Mr. Trump, he has a good instinct. He wants America strong. He wants America affluent. And for that, he – and maybe many, quite a few Americans even before him – understood that being a globalist hegemon was costing too much.
That started actually in the 2000s. But it was underneath. And then it came in the open with the first Trump presidency. Then he was defeated by the globalists, comprador or whatever, because in Poland, parts of American elite… Now he’s showing the way for America to be great again, but great again as a Western hemisphere power with a global reach, of course, but not a global hegemon, as it used to be. Because a global hegemon was a small episode in American history. And actually, it brought a lot of shame and a lot of losses to the United States, especially to its moral standing in the world.
RICK SANCHEZ: He still has some hegemonistic thinking people around him who are trying to convince him that he should attack Russia, and he should attack China, and he should do a lot of crazy things.
SERGEY KARAGANOV: That’s why people like myself on this side, and with my Chinese friends, are saying.
RICK SANCHEZ: Are you a hardliner? Do you consider yourself a hardliner in Russia?
SERGEY KARAGANOV: I’m a realist, but I’m very hardline. That’s why. Because I have been… I have been… Much more than Putin. Yeah, of course. Did you tell him? Have you told him that? Yes. You’ve told him. And he knows.
RICK SANCHEZ: You’ve told him, “You’re too patient, you’re too weak, you need to be stronger.” Of course. I don’t want to put words in your mouth. Absolutely.
SERGEY KARAGANOV: But that means we have to roughly deter, first of all, and even morally – hopefully without using military force – defeat Europe, because Europe is a source. And we have to roughly deter the United States, because it has still these hegemonic ambitions, and a lot of people you have mentioned are still thinking about globalist role about defeating Russia, China, etc.
But we are moving in the right direction, and this right direction would lead us – hopefully, if we do the right things to avoid a great thermonuclear war now, we will lead to a world where four great powers will lead the world towards a better order. These four powers are obvious.
RICK SANCHEZ: And Europe is not among them. Exactly. So here’s my question to you, then, and I want you to think long and hard about this. Europe is in a weaker state today than it ever has been in your lifetime.
SERGEY KARAGANOV: Right? Absolutely. But even, I would say, not in all of Europe – for about 500 years, yes.
RICK SANCHEZ: Then if that’s the case, and Europe is weaker now than it’s ever been, is this the time to attack or befriend? Come on. Which is the better strategy?
SERGEY KARAGANOV: Absolutely. I mean, why on earth do we have to attack? Europe is a source of problems. Yeah. And it will be more a source of problems because it is disintegrating. It will be… they will again be at each other’s throats, as they have been throughout history. So, I mean, my idea is, of course we have to trade, we have to keep cultural ties, etc. But we have to go as far away from the European disease as possible. Taking with us, of course, the great literature which we have inherited from Europe, great music – because we wouldn’t have Tolstoy and Dostoevsky without European influence; we wouldn’t have Tchaikovsky or Mussorgsky without European influence. We shall keep that. We shall keep Beethoven and Chopin with us. But, I mean, and let them, I mean, boil in their own sauce, which tastes or smells worse and worse.
RICK SANCHEZ: I find Vladimir Putin fascinating in so many ways, and one of the things that fascinates me so much about him is that he’s disliked so much by the West, and ill-treated generally by the Western media, and yet in many ways – if you just look at it on paper, forget Putin, take his name out of it – and just say, look at what’s happened to Russia from the end of the Soviet Union to now, where it kind of went way downhill, and under Mr. Putin’s leadership it’s actually done quite well. Right? On paper, if you just look at GDP, if you look at employment, if you look at approval ratings, if you look at all those things. And he’s thrown out a lot of the bad people, who are some of the people who are now trying to attack him from other countries. But how would you characterize Mr. Putin as the leader of this country over the past, oh, so many years?
SERGEY KARAGANOV: Well, history will say. But I remember that in 1999, I was a part of a movement to oust the rule of the oligarchs. And when he came, at first I was against him because I thought he was one of those. But when he came to power, I came to a very definite conclusion that the Almighty had excused Russia for the sin of communism and many other sins, and that he was sent by the Almighty. I told him to his face about that. Whether he agrees or not, I think he agreed. But he never would admit that, of course.
RICK SANCHEZ: What’s he like? What’s he like? Is he a simple man? I heard he never sleeps.
SERGEY KARAGANOV: Let’s put it this way. I am not his advisor. I am not in his inner circle. I am looking from outside. He is a man of his generation. I think I would even disagree on some of his infatuation with – former infatuation with – Europe and the West. Because I lost that infatuation earlier than him. I told him once publicly about that. But he is progressing very fast, and it’s unbelievable. He’s my age and he’s progressing very fast. But when I think about him, I say, “Be tougher.”
RICK SANCHEZ: “Be tougher.” Yes. We just learned, by the way – I was just told by one of my producers – that Mr. Zelensky will, after all, be traveling to Davos. Originally, we had just reported… we wanted to make sure that there’s an update on that. We’re told now he will be traveling to Davos. That doesn’t mean that he’s going to sit down and talk to Mr. Trump. We don’t know if that’s changed or any of Mr. Trump’s advisers. What do you make of him? What do you make of Volodymyr Zelensky?
SERGEY KARAGANOV: Who is this guy? Let’s put it this way. I mean, I think he doesn’t deserve our attention. By the way, a talented actor or a talented comedian who was put by history in his place – he deserves some respect because he hasn’t yet broke, I mean, completely.
But he’s a puppet of his oligarchic class, and he’s a puppet of oligarchs and plutocrats from outside. And he’s not a leader of the country, because he dislikes and does not respect Ukraine. And that is clear.
RICK SANCHEZ: You think he’s giving it up? Do you think he’s allowed Ukraine, his people, to be used?
SERGEY KARAGANOV: Listen, what this elite, which brought him to power, has done to Ukraine – and I knew most of the people of the previous elite, not Mr. Zelensky – they had a chance of building a state and a prosperous state out of Ukraine. Instead, they robbed it from the beginning to the end.
Ukraine does not have a state-building elite. And so these are clowns. Now, of course, because of war some of them are becoming tougher. But I do not see any hope for Ukraine as a state.
RICK SANCHEZ: I hope I’m wrong. Let’s make some news here, if we can. Odessa. Odessa is a city by all historic understanding that is more Russian than it is Ukrainian. And many of the people there consider themselves so. And historically, of course, everything is there that signals Catherine the Great and everything else having to do with Russia throughout its history. So here’s the question.
Do you think the Russians, in this position now – obviously winning this war – will continue on to Odessa and liberate or conquer Odessa, use your term, and should they? Would you like to see it?
SERGEY KARAGANOV: First of all, I am not one of the fans of Mr. Trump’s proposals, though I understand that he means peace. Yes, peace proposals. It is a piecemeal solution, which does not solve the problem. It will be an armistice. The real problem is, of course, the fact that European elites, because of their multiple failures, are pushing hostility and war to the front of their agenda.
The fact, that they’re actually preparing themselves for war, is absolutely abysmal idiocy, because if it comes to war, there will be no – physically no – Europe has been a problem. As to the territorial issue, I believe that, hopefully, it will be some kind of piecemeal deal, and I think that is useful.
RICK SANCHEZ: Russia gets the four oblasts that they’ve already liberated.
SERGEY KARAGANOV: And also we will stop, I mean, sacrificing our best men, which is very important. But if the problem is not solved – the problem of Europe – the war will be restarted. By other means. And then the question – at least in our analysis – would be that Russia will have to escalate closer to the nuclear level to push Europeans aside. And then probably, probably take over, return some of the southern and eastern areas which are purely Russian.
But I do not want Russia, from the beginning, to take over the whole of Ukraine. Because Ukraine – parts of Ukraine, especially central and western – are not quite Russian.
And here I disagree with Mr. Putin, who said that we are one people. I mean, we are. And second, I must say that we do not need that. They have been a burden on the neck of the Soviet Union. They have been the biggest swallower of subsidies within the former Soviet Union. And the central and western areas of Ukraine have been on subsidies within Ukraine, because the productive areas of Ukraine, mostly productive, are in the east and south. I’m not a racist at all, but that is a fact of history. We do not want to take them over, and we do not want to take them back. But if needed, and if there would be a massacre, etc., etc., we will have to deal with that. And if that happens there.
RICK SANCHEZ: But they’re a small landlocked country, and I’m not sure.
SERGEY KARAGANOV: Let it be. There are, in principle, landlocked countries in Europe, which could prosper. The problem is not that it is landlocked; it is that it does not have a state-building elite – a responsible, patriotic elite. Maybe during this war they will build up something, but I’m not sure whether they could build not only chauvinist elite, but also a constructive elite which could rebuild the country.
So far, they have been failing for these 30 years from the beginning to the end. They have inherited the richest part of the former Soviet Union, and they made it probably the poorest part of the former Soviet Union.
RICK SANCHEZ: Let me press you, Mr. Karaganov, on the question of using any type of nuclear power against Europe – something you have mentioned on several occasions – and you said it might come to that if they keep pushing, if they keep doing what they’re doing, if they keep threatening.
What do you mean by that? What exactly – explain to our viewers – what exactly would it take for Russia to get to that pain threshold where they have to actually do it?
SERGEY KARAGANOV: If Europeans continue to support Ukraine – to prop up, not Ukraine, this war; it’s not about Ukraine, it’s a war against Russia – they’re using Ukraine as cannon fodder, and there’s nothing to do. And I remember very well that I have been cautioning at that time – so we were still friendly with Americans and Europeans – I’ve been telling you, “If you push Ukraine in that direction, you’re condemning them to millions of deaths.” That has happened already.
RICK SANCHEZ: So to be clear, you’re saying Europe is already at war with Russia?
SERGEY KARAGANOV: Absolutely. There’s no question about that. And we get – of course I’m not openly acknowledging that officially – but it is clearly… it is the third big war of Europe against Russia. One was Napoleon – there were smaller wars before, but Napoleon came with 20 languages. Then Hitler came with 95% of the countries of Europe behind him.
I mean, Britain avoided that fate because Hitler made a fantastic mistake – one of the worst in history – when he decided to invade the Soviet Union before Britain. Otherwise, Britain would have been Germanized, too. But there were only two countries in Europe which were not participating in Hitler’s invasion. These were former Yugoslavia and Greece. Others supplied arms, people, etc. Even the French, of course, who were our allies, sent divisions to the Russian front, and they were the last to defend the Reichstag when Russian troops came to Berlin. So we all remember that, and now this history comes back, and we have to face it again. And just to remind ourselves that Europe has been the source of most wars and the worst tragedies in human history.
RICK SANCHEZ: But to leave this on a positive note, I see signs – maybe you don’t, and you have a lot more history than me. And as an American, we tend to look at things in a 24-hour period, unfortunately. And you, as I just saw, do something that’s very Russian. You look at everything through the lenses of history. You really do. And it’s not just you. It’s many of the smart people that I talk to in Russia.
But at least in the past month, I have seen things that I didn’t think I’d see. I see a German chancellor saying, “I want to make Russia part of Europe again. I want to go back and make amends with Russia.” I see Europeans saying the same thing. I see an American president essentially saying, “I want to welcome Russia back in somehow,” even though there are people in his country that are fighting him. There are good positive signs right now of the things that you say we must do to avoid this conflagration to happen. Do you see those too?
SERGEY KARAGANOV: Yes, I see these signs on the American side. Mr. Trump is a reflection of deep changes in the balance of American history, interests. Of course, as to Europeans – and yes, we have very many ties, we will restore some of them – but no, thank you, not anymore.
We are fed up with them. So what we should do is to return to where we belong. And that is… we’re a great Eurasian country. China, India, right? China, India, Persia, Turkey. We are politically Asian, we are socially Asian, culturally we’re European, and we love the culture. But why on earth should we return to this dustbin of history? “Dustbin of history.” Strong words, sir. Not all of my compatriots would agree with me, but I mean more and more agree, because when we were telling them that it is dustbin of history 20 or 25 years ago – before that, I was also a Europhile – they were rejecting us, but now they see that it is dustbin of history. However, they’re still affluent economically – why not trade with them? And why not deal with them on a human level? Though, as you know, Europeans are forbidden to talk to Russians.
So are Americans. Americans, I mean, they also… but still Americans have a bit more of a room for maneuver. But Europeans simply could risk their careers or else just for talking. And I have many friends who are clandestinely sending me notes – I mean, hello to their friends – and I’m clandestinely, not to jeopardize them… I mean, sending notes through other means. It’s unbelievable. I mean, the Iron Curtain, which had been built on, even on the human side, from the European side, during the Soviet-Western confrontation, we still have a lot more channels of communication, a lot more friendships, more cultural exchanges.
RICK SANCHEZ: It was difficult, unpleasant, but it was not forbidden. It kind of fits, I think, in many ways what I heard from Mr. Lavrov yesterday. I think he’s more trusting of the Americans, although not totally, because he knows that administration changes, but he still doesn’t trust the European perspective, even the handshake at this point. Sergey Karaganov. Wow. He has advised Mr. Putin, he has advised Mr. Yeltsin, and Mr. Brezhnev. Wow, what a story. Thank you so much. It was a pleasure.
SERGEY KARAGANOV: No, no, but they are not responsible for my advice.
RICK SANCHEZ: I’ll call them and let them know. Oh my God, thank you so much. We so much appreciate you coming in and giving us this historical perspective. And your very educated perspective on where the world is right now, because we’re going through a hell of a time. Pardon me for using the vernacular in that case. That’s it for us. Thank you so much for being with us. I really appreciate the fact that you’ve been following us so much lately.