Russia in global affairs

To call things by their proper names, the West has started a new Cold War in an attempt to reverse its disadvantageous position in the new global balance of power. This is dangerous. One must soberly assess the consequences of the present geopolitical, geoeconomic, and ideological situation and the experience of the previous war, and map out a long-term strategy.

For over a decade, most of the world’s international systems inherited from the past have been falling into decay. It will take several more decades to get the existing world order replaced with a new one. Russia has good chances to influence its formation.

There is an increasingly strong feeling of déjà vu as some of Russia’s Western partners are trying to replay the scenario of the late 1970s and early 1980s when the deployment of Soviet SS-20 medium-range missiles and American Pershing and land-based cruise missiles in Europe triggered a long military-political crisis.

The Russian elite have realized that the country will have to live in a new reality that differs from the past rosy dreams of integration with the West, while preserving its independence and sovereignty. Yet they have not yet used the confrontation and the growth of patriotism for an economic revival.

I have already written before that having emerged from the Cold War, Europe lost the post-war peace. The continent is on the verge of strategic degradation that may either become a caricature of military-political division into opposing blocs or a time of disquieting uncertainty. The military-political conflict over Ukraine can escalate as well.

Having won the Cold War (perhaps largely due to the courage of the Russian people who threw off a communist dictatorship and were prepared to take risks), Europe seems to be losing the peace.