Publications

18.05.2010. "Despite its decline, Europe will be a shining example of how the world should be governed"
Several major trends will dominate the next two decades. There will be the continuous shift of economic and political power from Europe and to some extent from the U.S. to East and South Asia. But although Europe’s geopolitical decline will continue, it will remain a beacon of stability and a shining example of how the world could and should be governed. Russia, after reaching a peak of its new influence in 2007-2009, will also face geopolitical decline, moving in the...

13.05.2010. The Dangers of Nuclear Disarmament
MOSCOW – Russia and the United States have signed a new strategic nuclear-arms reduction treaty (START). Officially, the treaty cuts their weapons by one-third; in fact, each party will decommission only several dozen.   Nevertheless, the treaty is a considerable achievement. It normalizes political relations between the two countries, thereby facilitating their further cooperation and rapprochement.   The return of strategic nuclear weapons to...

13.05.2010. The Nucleus of the Treaty
Russia and the U.S. have signed a new strategic arms reduction treaty. This officially cuts their surplus of arms by one third, but in actual fact, each party will only decommission several dozen such armaments. If the U.S. Senate and the Russian parliament ratify the agreement, the two countries will restore control over strategic nuclear armaments, making the situation more predictable. In the course of the negotiations, Russia reached almost all the...

02.04.2010. Nuclear Weapons in the Modern World
This essay was prepared for the Trilateral Commision and was published in the " Nuclear Disarmament and Nonproliferation" Report №64 - Washington, Paris, Tokyo, 2010  

09.03.2010. Echoes of the Past Wars
Or Strategic Havoc Last year was quite eventful in military-strategic terms. Russia and the United States remained locked in tough-going talks over strategic arms reductions. The odds are they may soon deliver a treaty. Then there will follow a no easy period of ratification in the United States. The Republicans in the Senate will do their utmost to strip Barack Obama of this sign of success in the sphere of disarmament the US president had declared a priority. The...

15.02.2010. THE PAST YEAR AND THE UPCOMING DECADE
The year 2009 brought closure to the first decade of the 21st century and – largely although not completely – to the entire post-Cold-War period in Euro-Atlantic politics. It also closed an era in Russian domestic and foreign policies marked by the country’s recovery as a state and a steep strengthening of its international and political positions. While ten years ago Russia faced the task of de facto regaining real sovereignty and the status of a great power, which...

09.02.2010. Why Europe needs a new security pact
Let me share some of the thinking that lies behind the Russian idea of the necessity of a new European security architecture. I cannot not claim authorship of the idea — that belongs rightly to President Dmitri Medvedev — but I have been a proponent of the concept for many years. During the last decade and a half, Russia has been drifting back to its traditional historical role — that of a relatively backward, but powerful country, seeking to join a...

24.11.2009. Russia in Euro-Atlantic Region
Let me share with you some thoughts born from the discussions of a report on a new Euro-Atlantic security architecture. The report, being prepared by the Russian group of the Valdai Club which I have been chairing for the last six years, will be presented in Moscow and London in December this year. The work on the report has brought me to a conclusion that is now obvious to me, but that is not generally accepted, yet. After all, when we speak of the need to sign a new treaty on...

09.11.2009. LA GUERRA IN EUROPA NON ? IMPOSSIBILE
1. QUEST’ANNO CADONO, QUASI PER MAGICA combinazione, gli anniversari di eventi che hanno plasmato il mondo in cui viviamo. Il principale riguarda la caduta del Muro di Berlino (9 novembre 1989), che provocò il tracollo del «socialismo reale» e l’imprevedibile fenomeno storico della totale riconciliazione fra russi e tedeschi. Ma è probabile che la fine del conflitto in Europa si rivelerà soltanto provvisoria. Le vecchie...

03.07.2009. How to draw a line under the Cold War
Faced with the daunting new challenges of the global economic crisis, the time has come for the West to re-think its relations with Russia, says Sergei Karaganov. He sets out his plan for an ambitious new collective security agreement   This year offers a seemingly magical combination of anniversaries of events that shaped the world we live in. The main one, of course, is the twentieth anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, whose consequence was the death of “real...

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